Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 8.743168 10.041679 11.441099 13.058227 14.872139 16.840650 19.135192
2026-01-04 6.833451 8.588215 10.627500 13.159584 16.205191 19.735733 24.122381
2026-01-11 5.780723 7.705424 10.053986 13.106429 16.941839 21.572228 27.552810
2026-01-18 4.930303 6.935857 9.494028 12.958205 17.482965 23.143733 30.705465
2026-01-25 4.342655 6.403808 9.136018 12.968536 18.141914 24.811016 33.973274
2026-02-01 3.896833 6.000719 8.889346 13.072533 18.888389 26.588125 37.431557
2026-02-08 3.468228 5.566228 8.544509 12.988871 19.340321 27.959094 40.376395
2026-02-15 3.095518 5.168616 8.206468 12.869861 19.708303 29.203029 43.173104
2026-02-22 2.827524 4.897985 8.022291 12.944491 20.333745 30.808040 46.513599
2026-03-01 2.662000 4.768456 8.032784 13.297186 21.367727 33.020500 50.787901
2026-03-08 2.390021 4.437653 7.702009 13.098186 21.555136 34.003154 53.316100
2026-03-15 2.078160 4.007214 7.175178 12.548360 21.163228 34.096826 54.522916
2026-03-22 1.970853 3.922653 7.208324 12.901106 22.201136 36.391198 59.128598
2026-03-29 1.848373 3.798946 7.165593 13.124548 23.043059 38.421728 63.418799
2026-04-05 1.684835 3.582177 6.943948 13.028291 23.353732 39.630810 66.480119
2026-04-12 1.532745 3.370662 6.712855 12.895862 23.589716 40.721771 69.387270
2026-04-19 1.416277 3.215655 6.568844 12.900868 24.047626 42.174255 72.905740
2026-04-26 1.324402 3.099966 6.486443 13.006258 24.675249 43.917771 76.942881
2026-05-03 1.216542 2.939901 6.307423 12.922314 24.965743 45.112814 80.126845
2026-05-10 1.114737 2.781494 6.118079 12.804067 25.184082 46.188188 83.142522
2026-05-17 1.043777 2.682263 6.035644 12.878282 25.743552 47.850317 87.176379
2026-05-24 1.007482 2.656555 6.097288 13.229428 26.817107 50.421929 92.812178
2026-05-31 0.918900 2.501721 5.883836 13.031308 26.869876 51.233261 95.492020